Seasonal Demand Intelligence
CHALLENGE: The Director walked through the summer of 2024 as the case in point. Portland hit 100°F in late June — earlier and hotter than the prior 3 years. Residential contractors flooded the counter with demand for condensing units, mini-splits, and refrigerant. The purchasing team had set summer cooling inventory based on 2023 patterns, when the first heat event didn't hit until mid-July. By July 1st, the 3 Portland metro branches were stocked out on 8 of the top 12 residential cooling SKUs. The team placed emergency orders with manufacturers at expedited freight costs. Two weeks later, inventory arrived — just as the heat wave broke and demand dropped 40% below forecast for the rest of July.
SOLUTION: We spent 5 weeks in discovery analyzing 4 years of transaction data across all 6 branches, mapped against weather data, building permit filings, and construction activity in each branch's trade area.
